MLB: NL Championship prediction

Before the season started, a lot of people took one look at the Houston Astros and called them possible World Series victors. These same people looked at the Cardinals and dismissed them, ranking them as low as fourth in the NL Central, citing their lack of any sort of pitching. Hey, I was one of these people.

And we were half-wrong

Hey, the Astros are doing pretty well now. In the playoffs, just knocked off the Braves and their own playoff demons, the going is still rough with the injuries to starting pitchers Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller, but their hitting is good enough to lead them to the World Series.

Or is it?

On the other side of the field will be the St. Louis Cardinals. The new favorites to win the World Series. They have hitting that could prove to be the best lineup in the history of baseball. Their starting is pitching, though undoubtedly hurt by the possible season-ending injury to "ace" Chris Carpenter before the playoffs. Their bullpen is solid after being horrible last season. This could be an interesting match-up. And it doesn't hurt that the Astros won the season series.

Catcher: Brad Ausmus vs. Mike Matheny

You won't hear much about Brad Ausmus nor his backup Raul Chavez, but they have proven that they can make contact, going 6-14 combined in the series and accounting for two homers. They also combined for two RBI, four runs, three walks and three strikeouts. Matheny, on the other hand, went 4-14 (.286) with a homer, five RBI and two strikeouts. Edge goes to the Cards' Matheny for this one, as neither team has a solid defensive catcher, but Matheny has shown a propensity for being able to dole out the ribbies.

Infield: Jeff Bagwell, Jeff Kent, Jose Vizcaino, Morgan Ensberg vs. Albert Pujols, Tony Womack, Edgar Renterria, Scott Rolen

The infields were the pride and joy of both teams coming into the season. Bagwell and Kent are proven sluggers, as proven by their display last week. Bagwell went 7-22 (.318) for two homers and five RBIs, three walks and three strikeouts. Kent went 5-22 (.227), three RBIs, two walks and five strikeouts. Ensberg held up his slot going 7-19 (.368), five RBIs, three walks and one strikeout, which is surprising since he is possibly the weakest link in the infield for the Astros. At least, until Adam Everett, their lead-off hitter, got injured. Replacement Vizcaino disappointed with a 2-19 (.105) showing. That will not be enough against Pujols of 5-15 (.333) fame, who slugged two longballs, knocked in five scores and still managed to walk thrice with no strikeouts. Womack, their lead-off hitter, was somewhat disappointing against the Dodgers with a 3-19 (.158) showing, Scott Rolen was ice cold going 0-12, but Edgar Renterria, another All-Star on this line-up, went 5-11 (.455) with four RBIs, three walks and one strikeout. The edge tentatively goes to the Cardinals, given their better defense (Rolen is a potential Gold Glover as is Renterria, while Vizcaino is a replacement and Bagwell/Kent are getting old). If Scott Rolen can break out of his cold streak, the Cardinals infield will light the pitchers up like a Christmas tree.

Outfield: Carlos Beltran, Lance Berkman, Crag Biggio vs. Jim Edmonds, Larry Walker, Reggie Sanders

Any team would love to have the Astros outfield, and that includes the Cardinals. Beltran set a divisional series record by belting four homers and did everything, from going 10-22 (.455) with nine RBIs, one walk, four strikeouts and two stolen bases. Berkman, 9-22 (.409) with a homer, three RBIs, three walks and six strikeouts along with Biggio, 8-20 (.400) with a homer, four RBIs, two walks, four strikeouts and a steal round out this 400 hitting bunch. Wow. Walker went 5-15 (.333), two homers, three RBIs, two walks and five strikeouts (and a steal! I didn't know he still had it in him!), Edmonds went 4-15 (.267) with a homer, a pair of bat-ins, one walk and a whopping nine strikeouts and Sanders went 4-14 (.286) with a solo homer, two strikeouts and a steal. Those are tremendous numbers, but are no match for the Astros' outfield. Edmonds is a Gold Glover, but Beltran may perhaps be an even better fielder. Edge to the Astros.

Rotation: Brandon Backe (1-0, 3.00), Pete Munro (0-0, DNP), Roger Clemens (1-0, 3.00), Roy Oswalt (1-0, 2.38) vs. Woody Williams (1-0, 3.00), Matt Morris (0-1, 5.14), Jeff Suppan (1-0, 2.57), Jason Marquis (0-0, 8.10)

The Astros got caught with their arms under their jerseys this time. Clemens and Oswalt, having pitched Games 4 and 5 against the Braves, now are too tired to play until Games 3 and 4 against the Cardinals. Good news for the Cardinals, as this allows them to have a relatively favorable match-up. Woody Williams takes on youngster Brandon Backe in what is possibly an exciting game, but Backe, being young, may give a gem of a game or a fake diamond. Game 2 is similar, with coin-flip performance Matt Morris facing off relatively unproven Pete Munro. Games 3 and 4 are where the Astros hope to make a strong-case, but Roger Clemens faces off a dominant Jeff Suppan. Roy Oswalt looks down on the slumping Jason Marquis. This is where the Cardinals wish they had Chris Carpenter back. I give the starting pitching edge to the Astros on the strength of Clemens and Oswalt against an unproven, streaky Cardinals rotation.

Bullpen: Chad Qualls (6.75), Dan Miceli (0-1, 5.40), Brad Lidge (2.08) vs. Julian Tavarez (0.0), Steve Kline (0.0), Jason Isringhausen (4.50)

The Astros have possibly one of the most dominant relievers in the game now in Brad Lidge, who set the NL record with 157 strikeouts in a season as a reliever. 157! There are starting pitchers out there who would love to have 157 strikeouts. The problem for the Astros is getting there or what happens after Brad Lidge. Their bullpen has struggled the entire season, and many critics have questioned their trading of Octavio Dotel, as it has forced them to use Lidge in a closer's role where he often did not come into games at key moments. The Cardinals, however, have a solid closer in Isringhausen, although he is not as dominant as Lidge. The difference is depth. The Cardinals have a bullpen about seven-strong who can all post zeroes. I give this to the Cardinals. Having Eric Gagne is great, but it sure didn't help the Dodgers.

I predict the Cardinals will win this one. On paper, the Astros are an overall better team. But I worry that Clemens and Oswalt are tiring from their usage in the divisional series and that the bullpen is just not strong enough to withstand the Cardinals' barrage.