Super Bowl XXXVIII will be Brady's mark again

The game is already being heralded as one of the most boring match-ups in Super Bowl history, with CBS frantically looking for any star to advertise. The burden of stardom for Super Bowl XXXVIII will be carried by Tom Brady, as he will carry the Patriots to their second Lombardi Trophy in three years.

These past two weeks have been filled with desperate spotlights on the players involved. Julius Peppers leading the fantastic Carolina defensive line, Ty Law and the New English secondary, called "the best I've ever coached" by Coach Belichick, and both quarterbacks, Tom Brady and Jake Delhomme. The teams have been spouted off as equal by analysts on ESPN and CBS, and the definite majority agrees that the game will be close and low scoring.

Defense
Carolina, sporting possibly the best defensive line in the NFL this year, recorded 40 sacks, with 30.5 of those coming off of the defensive line. Julius Peppers, with a career low seven sacks this season, generally commanded, as he himself said, "three or four blockers every play." That left Mike Rucker, Kris Jenkins, and under-rated Brentson Buckner generally on one-on-one match-ups. Rucker, consequently, nailed the quarterback for 12 sacks before he also began to command double-teams. Worth noting here is Peppers' spike in the number of sacks (he had 2 sacks for half the season, while Rucker recorded 10. Ruckers then proceeded to record 2 sacks as Peppers recorded 5). Tackles Jenkins and Buckner both would be double-teamed had they not had Peppers and Ruckers. Most teams generally assign one or two extra blockers (fullback and tight end) in most play packages along with their offensive linemen, thus having seven potential blockers. If Peppers and Ruckers both receive double teams and Jenkins and Buckner are blocked by a single man that leaves one extra blocker. Of course, that limits the weapons the offense can use (the Patriots have receiving fullback Larry Centers and receiving tight ends Christian Fauria and Daniel Graham), but it also lowers to blocking for linebackers. The Panthers generate enough of a rush solely with their defensive line that their linebackers do not necessarily have to blitz, and if they do, it generally creates immense havoc among the passing game. This essentially forces a team to run the ball.

Notably, the Panthers gave up a 4 yards per carry average to opponents, but forced teams to run 44% of the time. Even if the team is a running team, this eats up the clock and plays to the Panthers' style. Since the linebackers do not necessarily have to blitz to generate pressure, it is difficult to pull of 20-plus yard runs against the Panthers, and when the teams pass, they generally cannot throw long. The 6.16 yards per pass average speaks for the Panthers ability to shut down long gains despite allowing a mediocre 57% completion percentage to opposing quarterbacks. The secondary has held its own despite being the weakness of the team. As shown during the NFC championship game against the Eagles, Ricky Manning has truly become a solid starting cornerback, with Mike Minter covering the other end. Much emphasis will be placed on the play of the safeties, including former first-round pick Deon Grant, who will have to continue stepping up his play.

The Patriots, however, match and surpass all of these stats. While much has been made of the Panther's ability to sack or pressure the opposing quarterbacks, the Patriots also recorded 41 sacks, one higher than the Panthers, being led by linebacker Tedy Bruschii's 9.5. Their defense thrives on confusing schemes, shuffling around their secondary and front seven to create blocking mismatches. Consequently, even veteran quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning have had immense difficulties against the defense, throwing a horrid 53% completion percentage. The secondary shuts down receivers well enough that the Patriots held opponents to a lowly 5.64 yards per pass average- numbers that the Arizona Cardinals give up per run. The secondary is well documented, with Pro-Bowl cornerback Ty Law shutting down one side and Tyrone Poole shutting down the other, having Pro-Bowl safety and team leader Rodney Harrison delivering crushing blows and rookie cornerback-convert Eugene Wilson step up to help coverage.

The Patriots lockdown pass defense generally forces opposing teams to try to run, but that is a failed venture as well. The Patriots gave up 1434 rushing yards to teams this season, but did so on 401 attempts, allowing 3.6 yards per carry. That is paltry, considering Ahman Green had approximately 5 yards per carry average during the season. The run defense, shored up by big nose tackle Ted Washington, has proven big during crunch time, with many pointing to the week 13 goal line stop against Indianapolis.

The big question will be third and fourth down conversions. The Patriots only allowed opponents to convert 34% of their third down conversions, as well as 38% of fourth down conversions. The Panthers allowed 35% of third down conversions but a smaller 31% of fourth down conversions. These numbers will be key in holding down a close game that will likely be decided by field position.

Special Teams
The Patriots special teams has the most famous and popular kicker Adam Vinatieri at its helm, although they only hit 25 of 34 field goal attempts this season- a lowly 74% success ratio. Notably, opponents have also only hit 25 of 35 field goal attempts, with one blocked kick. However, the Patriots have not faltered during the post-season. Ken Walters punted an average of 37.7 yards and landed 25 inside the 20 yard-line, slamming a long punt of 52 yards. The return unit is spearheaded by speedy rookie Bethel Johnson and his 28.2 kickoff return average (1 touchdown) and Troy Brown's 10.1 punt return average, both in the upper tier of the league. The Patriots have allowed only one punt returned for a touchdown.

The Panthers are known for their special teams, however, with their most famous being the week two showcase with two blocked kicks. John Kasay knocked in 32 of 38 field goals this season for an 84% success ratio. The Panthers have held opposing kickers to making 21 of 32 field goals, a paltry 66% success- their four blocked field goals are a testament to the special team success. The Panthers sport pro-bowl punter Todd Sauerbrun, considered the best punter in the league, and his 44.6 yards per punt average with 22 within the 20 yard-line, hammering a long of 64 yards. The return unit is led by He Hate Me aka Rod Smart and his relatively paltry 23.1 average (1 touchdown) and Steve Smith's 28.1 kickoff return average and 10.0 punt return average (1 touchdown). They've blocked one punt and allowed one punt returned for a touchdown.

Offense
The Panthers offense is no secret. Run with Stephen Davis. Run with Stephen Davis. Mix in a little DeShaun Foster here and there, and maybe pass with Jake Delhomme once, before going back to run with Davis. However the Panthers have held their own with this, nailing 1873 total rushing yards during the season. Ex-Redskin Stephen Davis rumbled for 1444 yards on 4.5 yards per carry average, knocking home eight touchdowns and contributing to the clock control philosophy of the team. Change-of-pace DeShaun Foster ran for 429 yards with a 3.8 yards per carry average, showing the league why he was the Panthers future until an injury all but destroyed his rookie season and left him forgotten (his first NFL carry was a 60 yard touchdown run against the Redskins during the pre-season last year). Quarterback Jake Delhomme has steadily managed the team in his 15 starts after coming in for the second half and rallying the Panthers from a 20 point deficit against the Jacksonville Jaguars in week 1. With a 59.2% completion percentage, 3219 yards, 19 touchdowns, and 16 interceptions for an 80.6 passer rating, Delhomme surpassed all expectations for him coming into the season and secured himself as a solid quarterback. He was sacked only 23 times. Delhomme has weapons, as well, with aging by solid receiver Muhsin Muhammad across the break-out Steve Smith. Smith led the team with 88 receptions for 1110 yards (a 12.6 average) and hit seven touchdowns, and has sparkled in the post-season with his 69 yard catch in double-overtime to clinch the NFC championship berth against the St. Louis Rams. Muhammad had 54 catches for 837 yards (15.5 average) with three touchdowns despite missing games due to a concussion suffered against the Titans. Slot receiver Ricky Proehl, a former Ram, had 27 catches for 389 yards (14.4 average) while meeting the end zone four times. The Panthers had a risky 36% third-down conversion success rate, but punter Sauerbrun has enabled them to fight a game of field position.

The Patriots are not quite as easy to categorize. They have never kept an offensive identity from one game to another, switching between three running backs (shifty Kevin Faulk, pounder Antowain Smith, and former Chief Mike Cloud). What has remained a constant is Tom Brady and his golden arm, packing a 60.2% completion ratio, 3620 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions for an 85.9 passer rating. He was sacked 32 times. The Patriots use a high percentage passing scheme using every receiving weapon they have, and they have plenty. Primary receiver Troy Brown turned in a disappointing 40 catches for 472 yards (11.8 average) while reaching the end zone four times, with secondary receiver David Givens also proving disappointing with 34 catches for 510 yards (15.0 average) and six touchdowns. What had shined was former third receiver Deion Branch and his 57 catches for 803 yards (14.1 average) and three touchdowns after being forced into the starting lineup due to injuries. The Patriots also have solid receiving tight end Christian Fauria with his 28 catches for 285 yards (10.2 average) and two touchdowns, with Daniel Graham having stepped up with 38 catches and 409 yards (10.8 average) and four touchdowns when Fauria was injured during the season. Aiding these two contributors is ex-Redskin and former Pro-Bowl fullback Larry Centers with 19 catches for 106 yards (5.6 average) and a touchdown, causing coverage problems for opposing defenses. The running game has been a complete puzzle with Antowain Smith rushing 182 times for a career low 642 yards, 3.5 average, and only three touchdowns. Kevin Faulk, who appeared to be the featured back early in the season, carried 178 times for 638 yards, a 3.6 average, with no end zone appearances. Mike Cloud came in 27 times for 118 yards, a 4.4 average, and five touchdowns. In the post-season, however, Smith has been the feature-back while displaying his first 100-yard game of the season against the Colts in the championship game. The Patriots converted 37% of their third-down attempts.

Both teams fought time of possession wars, with the Panthers philosophy based around it. Shockingly, the Patriots were better, with a 30:50 possession time compared to the Panthers 30:27. The Patriots also had a better touchdowns vs. opposing touchdowns ratio (39-23) than the Panthers (33-35), pointing out that the Patriots, despite their lack of stars, had a more efficient and effective offense.

Key Matchups
Panthers pass rush vs. Patriots pass blocking
40 sacks versus 32 sacks given up- the Patriots will have to protect Brady and enable him to have enough time, despite the quick release of Brady, to read the defense and pass to the open receiver. The Panthers will have to pressure Brady with everything they have and force him to make the rare bad decision. If not, Brady has the ability to make the quick read and pick apart the Panthers secondary.

Steve Smith vs. Ty Law and Muhsin Muhammad vs. Tyrone Poole
Despite all the attention the Panthers running game has been getting, the key will still be Jake Delhomme and the passing game. The Panthers absolutely cannot become one dimensional against the phenomenal Patriots run defense, and the responsibility to create separation will rest upon Smith and Muhammad. Law has made it no secret that he will jam Smith at the line and disrupt that side. It is up to Smith to slip past the jam and force Law to keep up with Smith's speed, who can be the game breaker with a 60+ yard touchdown reception. Law must be able to successfully jam Smith or keep him covered at all times, and if Smith does manage to catch a long ball, Law must tackle Smith or the game will be broken open in a matter of moments. Muhammad has height advantage and the physical prowess to counter Tyrone Poole's physical play, and in crunch time Delhomme may be forced to throw to Muhammad. As the veteran receiver, Muhammad will have to deliver and make the key conversions in order to move down the field.

Prediction
The Patriots will win 20-14. Tom Brady will charge down the field in the fourth quarter to put the Patriots up 20-14 to erase a one-point deficit, and Jake Delhomme will be stopped short of a come-back drive. The game will likely be a war of quarterbacks versus coverage, and unfortunately for the Panthers, all the running game in the world cannot overcome the advantage Brady has over Delhomme.