Super Bowl Prediction

After a full season of cursing them and wishing everything bad upon them, the Eagles somehow managed to elude my bickering and stumble into the playoffs. Ok, maybe the domination of the Falcons does not quite make it seem as though the Eagles stumbled into the playoffs. But heck, it's the NFC. What is there to be proud about, really?

Maybe the message hasn't been sent to their so-called "Sultan of the Slot" (isn't that an insult for a first rounder anyways?). Freddie Mitchell swept the country off its feet by "dissing" the Patriots' secondary. Now, I'm sure almost everyone couldn't name the secondary either, but this is a man who should have been dissecting the play for an entire week.

Sad headlines aside, the Eagles and Patriots have played each other a grand total of nine times in the history of the NFL (the Eagles lead the series 6-3). So without further ado, here are the respective edges and my prediction of who will win the Vince Lombardi.

Offensive Performance
First we'll take a look at the "We're not defending anything" Patriots' capability to produce offensive in this game.

Coach Belichick, by trading for Corey Dillon in the off-season, finally gained the solid rushing game he so desired… in his last two Super Bowl wins. Consequently the Patriots' running game jumped to 4.1 yards per carry for 133.4 yards per game. They ran 32.8 times per game, good for fourth in the league. The running isn't flashy like Clinton Portis, but it does the job very well, as the Colts would attest. However the running game is not perfect. The Steelers rushing defense shut Dillon down to about 75 yards in the AFC Championship game, exploiting an offensive line that simply is not one of the most talented in the league. Just like every part of the Patriots' team, they overachieve. This means the Eagles, owning one of the more dominating run defenses in the second half of the season, can very well clamp down heavily on the running game as well.

Stopping the running game by itself is not enough to stop the Patriots, however, as Tom Brady has proven time and again that he is capable of engineering the necessary drives. This means the Eagles' secondary must step up to the task of handling the no-name passing attack. Primarily, Pro-Bowl CB Lito Sheppard will take on Deion Branch while Sheldon Brown takes on David Givens. Matchup-wise, the obvious on-paper talent would go to the Eagles. There are two factors going against them, however. Sheppard and Brown are both not the most experienced cornerbacks, leading to the possibility of good veteran receivers like Branch being able to exploit one-on-ones. This is especially important because it would force the Eagles to lay off the blitz and try to cover the receivers. The second is that the Patriots hardly ever use normal I-Formation. The Patriots often cause congestions in the secondary by overloading and forcing matchup problems, meaning that the nickleback could very well end up trying to cover Branch many times.

The Eagles' story is quite different. Assuming Terrell Owens does not play at all or simply plays decoy slot receiver (no matter how much he says he's been "spiritually healed," he's still on week seven of a ten week rehabilitation process), it will be up to Todd Pinkston, Freddie Mitchell and Greg Lewis to take advantage of a ragtag secondary. Excuse me, Mitchell, but he, Pinkston and Lewis are no Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne and Brandon Stokley. Forgive me for being skeptical of the receivers' ability to slice apart the Pats' well-coached secondary.

The focal points of the offense for Philadelphia will be Donovan McNabb and Brian Westbrook. Do not be surprised if Westbrook catches 10 passes during the Super Bowl… it could very well be their only way of moving up field. The Eagles sport an average offensive line that could cause problems for the Patriots' pass rush, but if their game against the Colts has proven anything, it is that the Patriots need not rush to win the game. Expect the Eagles' offensive line to manhandle the Patriots' defensive line in pass protection if Richard Seymour is not good to go. Westbrook may have a tough time finding holes against the Patriots' linebacking corps.

While the Eagles' offense may very well be better in terms of talent, it is doubtful they can put up solid numbers against a fired-up Patriots' defense. On the other hand, the steady Patriots' offense could move the chains quite a bit. Edge: Patriots.

Defensive Performance
So what will the Eagles try to do to stop the Patriots' offensive juggernaut? Absolutely dominate the line of scrimmage. Well-equipped to do so, I must say. Darwin Walker, Corey Simon, Jevon Kearse; those three names individually tend to be enough to give offensive coordinators fits, but together they form one of the most athletic lines in the league. Rushing Tom Brady results in a high winning percentage against the Patriots, and it is almost definitely a priority for the Eagles. The question is, however, can the Eagles manage to do the almost impossible? In the entire season, two teams were able to pressure Brady consistently: Pittsburgh in the first meeting and Miami late in the season. What must be worrisome is how well the Patriots were able to lock up the pass rush of a very good Steelers defense.

The Patriots have often played teams with an excellent front-four and a mediocre secondary (Carolina Panthers, Pittsburgh Steelers, among others). The front-four often works to cover up for the secondary, after all. The Eagles, however, have an excellent front-four AND an excellent secondary.

On the other side of the field, the Eagles look up and see a blue and silver wall- the dreaded linebackers of the Patriots. Rosevelt Colvin, Mike Vrabel, Tedy Bruschii and Willie McGinest. As expected of a former linebackers coach, Coach Belichick has created a formidable foursome capable of taking over games. The four will be asked to carry out pass rushes and shut down the tight ends and tailbacks.

The patchwork secondary of Asante Samuel, Randall Gay, Eugene Wilson and Rodney Harrison will try to hold the fort again. Interestingly enough, of the entire playoffs, the secondary will be facing their easiest test against the Eagles. The Steelers attacked with Hines Ward, Plaxico Burress and Antwaan Randle El, a combination that is still far better than what the Eagles currently have.

Because the Eagles are so un-versatile on offense without Terrell Owens, the Patriots could have an easier time stopping the offense. However, the Eagles have so much talent on defense it would be unfair to believe they would do worse. Edge: Eagles.

Coaching
Both coaches have recently earned Coach of the Year honors. Both coaches are masters at plugging people in when someone goes down. Both coaches have proven themselves successful time and time again. The difference? Belichick has two Super Bowl rings with arguably less talent than the Eagles. When people think of Belichick on the opposite sideline, there comes awe and respect as well as preparation for a bewildering game plan. Although Andy Reid is a great coach, he simply does not have the aura of Belichick's success and genius. Edge: Patriots.

The Big Prediction
Final Score: Patriots 17, Eagles 7.
Super Bowl MVP: Tom Brady.