Shaping up for the pennant runs

Fast forward to September. The Bronx Bombers are on the way to one of their worst collapses ever. The 10.5 game lead has dwindled to, well, a rather scary 2 game lead. Boston, on the other hand, is riding the expect hot streak, led by the tremendous pitching of their double-aces Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling. Perhaps this is the year of the Red Sox, where they finally break their curse. Perhaps the well-documented trade of All-Star Nomar Garciaparra has actually, well, helped them.

AL East

At first glance, the Yankees have pretty stout pitching. They're good for 7th in the AL with a 4.68 team ERA. They sport a 4th place WHIP with 1.36. But behind the lines is a very, very scary statistic. The most a Yankee starter has pitched is the 163.2 innings by de-facto "Ace" Javier Vazquez. That is a far cry from AL Leader Mark Mulder and his 197.1 innings. But more worrisome than the indication of the effectiveness of the pitchers is their ERA. Vazquez shows off a rather dreadful 4.62 with only 121 strike outs. That is almost half of what he had total last season. The rest of the rotation is not much better off. Jon Lieber leads their healthy rotation with a 4.46. That's ridiculous. Supposed Ace Mike Mussina has a wonderful 5.28, Kevin Brown has a 3.99 but has shown the Yankees why the Dodgers were willing to part with the injury-prone pitcher. Orlando Hernandez has been their only solid pitcher, sporting a 2.62 ERA. Their relief pitchers have done well to lower their team ERA and WHIP, but Mariano Rivera, Tom Gordon, and Pat Quatrill have pitched a total of 229.1 innings. Yes, that's more than Javier Vazquez.

On the other hand, the Red Sox have done rather well. They hold the number three slot on AL team ERA with 4.09, a whole .59 lower than their rivals, and lead the AL with a remarkable 1.3 WHIP. Their double-aces line up in the top 5 in the AL with Schilling holding a 3.39 and Martinez with 3.55. In fact, despite the struggles of Derek Lowe earlier this season, their entire qualifying rotation is in the top 40 for the AL in ERA. Considering that they score more runs than the much-esteemed Yankees lineup (768 to 737), there's plenty of reason to believe the BoSox are going to overtake the Yankees… and may even go all the way.

Baltimore, meanwhile, is tantalizing its fans with inconsistent production. Sometimes, for weeks, they'll fire off on all fronts, scoring runs like the Yankees and shutting down opponents like Oakland. Then, as they showed these past weeks, they'll get trampled. The team is showing definite signs of turning things around, and, assuming they shore up their pitching staff over the off-season, they could be contenders by even next season. Miguel Tejada is showing his worth, leading the Majors with 122 RBI.

The Devil Rays have, likewise, been tantalizing. They have one of the speediest lineups with All-Star Carl Crawford leading off (50 steals) and speedsters like Julio Lugo (15), Rocco Baldelli (27 last season), Jose Cruz Jr. (32 way back in 2001), call-up Joey Gathright (6 in 52 ABs), and stud shortstop prospect BJ Upton. Their pitching actually has been solid, with a 4.66 ERA (better than the Yankees) and a 1.42 WHIP. They simply lack the big guns in their hitting lineup to utilize all the speed.

Toronto has been absolutely befuddling, at best. Their pitching has been inconsistent, led by AL number 11 Ted Lilly (4.05 ERA) and number 18 Miguel Batista (4.41) as well as youngster Josh Towers (4.66). The non-factor of defending Cy Young-winner Roy Halladay has been devastating this year, as has been the anemic hitting of 2003 All-Stars Vernon Wells and Carlos Delgado. They won't going to win games with a lower team batting average than opposing batting averages (they hit .264 as a team, while opposing teams hit .274 against them). If Roy Halladay can return to form and Vernon Wells can regain his magic from last year (Delgado likely will leave the team in the off-season), then the 'Jays may bounce back to challenge the Rays and the Orioles. However this division is filled with so many up-and-coming teams at the bottom, the outlook seems bleak in the near future for the 'Jays.

AL Central

If there is one player that can almost completely transform a team, it would have to be the staff Ace. Johan Santana has been absolutely phenomenal after a bleak start, throwing for a 2.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, striking out a whopping 10.34 every nine innings. Already being mentioned loudly in Cy Young talks, Johan Santana leads a pitching staff that is the heart and soul of this Minnesota team. Joe Nathan hanging around to close off games does not hurt (1.61 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 38 saves, and a tremendous 11.01 strikeouts per nine innings). There is little doubt the payroll-hungry Twins will win this division again.

As sad as it seems, despite their best efforts, the White Sox will miss the playoffs yet again. The losses of Big Hurt Frank Thomas and Magglio Ordonez is too great for the team to overcome, and Shingo "Mr. Zero" Takatsu is no longer befuddling opposing hitters as he did earlier this season. Unfortunately, this division , despite its record, is the weakest in the AL, and the wild-card will not come from here. 8.5 games back is too much to handle at this point in the season. Better luck next year.

Cleveland has made great strides to mediocrity after beginning another rebuilding process after their last World Series. Owners and managers, the Cleveland Indians are your model for rebuilding contenders. The young Tribe must learn to grab maturity by its horns, because their 27-40 road record is the key to their missing the division crown.

Likewise in this slowly resurgent division, Detroit looks nothing like the losers of last season. While not at .500, the Tigers have flirted in the vicinity all season, a mark of improvement. Their young pitchers, like the Indians, will need to develop further, as stars such as Nate Robertson have definitely shown signs of fatigue.

Kansas City is in trouble. After trading Carlos Beltran, their lineup looks like a minor league team. This is not all that bad, as stud prospects like David DeJesus are gaining valuable experience from the opportunity. But this also means that they must develop now for the Royals to gain any sort of credibility in the league. The lack of a solid pitcher also hurts the Royals, as they converted one of their young starters into their closer (Jeremy Affeldt). Mike MacDougal will need to hurry with his return in order to move Affeldt back to where he belongs.

AL West

Rich Harden seems intent on turning the Big Three into the Big Four. Oakland would love that to happen. Believe it or not, the A's have one of their best pitching staffs ever this year, despite the struggles of Barry Zito. Mark Redman, although he has been shed in somewhat negative light in Oakland, carries a nice, solid 4.5 ERA, which is splendid for a fifth starter. Their starting five carries the ERAs of 2.95, 3.69, 3.9, 4.5, and 4.58. That's how you build a playoff team, Yankees.

Anaheim will grab one of the Wild Card teams. While it is doubtful they are going to be pleased with that… eh, they won the World Series after being a Wild Card team. The Angels are going to be deep threats during the playoffs, with good pitching (4.46 ERA) and great hitting, especially with the return of Troy Glaus as DH (he was, if you recall, leading the AL in homers before he left with his shoulder injury).

It was a nice run for the Rangers, but their team in fact did not change much from last season. Over-achieving Kenny Rogers is beginning to show his true form and so is the rest of the Rangers staff. Their ERA is still good for fifth in the AL, but in this division, it is simply not enough (still behind Anaheim and Oakland).

Seattle, 29.5 games behind, is out of it this season. The last month will be spent evaluating minor leaguers in preparation for next year. The story of the team? Ichiro Suzuki's incredible run to break the single season hitting record.

NL East

I'm sorry I ever doubted you, Atlanta. The Braves have come back storming into the division lead and are not looking back. The Braves have a 3.7 ERA (better than AL number one Oakland), are number five in the NL with 673 runs scored, and altogether simply have a solid team. The Joneses are swinging well, Marcus Giles has returned from his injury, John Smoltz is anchoring a dominant bullpen, and their starting rotation, led by the performance of Jaret Wright's 3.19 ERA, looks as good as ever. Trust the Braves to find a way to win the division again.

Florida is trying to recapture last season's magic, but, unfortunately, will not make the playoffs. Unlike last season, where three of the contenders for a Wild Card spot were in this division, the two spots will probably be decided from the other two divisions. While there is still hope, they are practically out of the race. Perhaps next year Josh Beckett will get rid of his blister bug and AJ Burnett will be back as the staff Ace. For now, they can only hope for some miracles to happen.

Philadelphia entered the season with high hopes (again) and looked to go far into the playoffs. And, again, they will miss out. Symbolized by Randy Wolf going on the DL, the Phillies have absolutely imploded. Their need for a pure lead-off hitter has haunted them the entire season, and their pitching staff has, well, underachieved. For all the money he is being paid, Kevin Millwood must post better than his 4.86 ERA. Perhaps teams should stop trying to take Atlanta pitchers.

The Mets, like the Phillies, held high hopes and continued to hold high hopes well past the trade deadline. But, like always, they are firmly OUT of the race. Their goal now? Sign Kris Benson. Benson has reportedly flirted with the idea of testing free agency. The Mets gave up too much to acquire Benson and must re-sign him. Regardless of whether they overpay.

Montreal is truly suffering from "Move-around-it is." Their record in the second half dwarves their record from the first half, and there is a simple explanation- they are no longer jumping around Latin America and North America. Give them a home, folks, give them a chance.

NL Central

Much has been made of the splendid lineup of the Cardinals, with tremendous hitters such as Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, Jim Edmons, Edgar Renterria… woah, woah, we're going to end up going through their entire lineup. Alright, aside from their acquisition of Larry Walker turning their lineup into, possibly, a dynasty worth mentioning in history books someday, their strength has actually been, you guessed it, their pitching staff. The Cardinals sport a NL best 3.68 ERA and a NL best WHIP of 1.24. So they have the best pitching and the second best hitting (San Francisco has more runs scored). That's what wins Championships. Could this be their year?

The Cubs and the Astros are fighting for their Wild Card lives. There are five teams capable of taking one of the spots, and these two teams are in the thick of it. The Cubs, with their acquisition of Nomar Garciaparra, have been able to gain that hitting edge they so desperately needed with the extended slump of Slammin' Sammy. Houston, on the other hand, is probably wailing about the loss of Wade Miller and Andy Pettitte. With their rotation halves, the Astros have been looking to sparkplug fielder Carlos Beltran for that final oomph to the playoffs. And they have been on a tear. Winning 9 of their past 10, the Astros are firing off into the race, and look to have all the momentum in the world to enter what many believed was a given- the playoffs.

The Central division actually looks like it's beginning to turn into a solid division, as Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Milwaukee all have tremendous upside. Cincinnati is rejuvenated by their hitting (hey, if you had Sean Casey, Adam Dunn, and Ken Griffey Jr., you might be pretty happy, too). Unfortunately, they have two simple obstacles: Griffey's injury prone and their pitching, well, is lackluster, to put it nicely. They're ahead of only Arizona and Colorado. That's pretty bad. Pittsburgh found some great young players this season, most notably Oliver Perez. 3.15 ERA, 198 strikeouts, he has the makings of an All-Star. Everyone knew he had the stuff, but now he has the control, even though he has still issued 67 walks. Milwaukee has a splendid ace in Ben Sheets, but their entire team needs to mature and become consistent. Scott Podsednik has struggled to find his groove, and Geoff Jenkins has been unable to find the magical swing of 2003. That pretty much sums up the season for the Brew Crew.

NL West

There was much laughter when the Dodgers completed their trades. But in actuality, perhaps they knew what they were doing. While the Dodgers haven't quite extended their lead in the division, they've managed to keep their stranglehold on it, and Eric Gagne, despite his meltdown a few weeks ago, is back to form. Their hitting relies far too much on Adrian Beltre (Steve Finley, Milton Bradley, and Shawn Green need to step up) and their depleted bullpen will remain their Achilles Heel come playoffs, but if Brad Penny can get healthy for the run, the Dodgers may be quite a threat.

San Francisco needs but one, good hitting threat to knock in Barry Bonds home. At least, that's the theory. However, with Jason Schmidt beginning to struggle, the Giants may be biting their fingernails. And for good reason. The injury to Jerome Williams has hurt their rotation, and a struggling Jason Schmidt can only mean bad things. Their lineup still does not strike fear into anyone once they look past Bonds, and that cannot stay true if they hope to get into the playoffs.

On the other hand, San Diego is doing great, with Phil Nevin returning with a hot bat. Their hitting lineup is simply too good to be this bad (Loretta, Giles, Nevin, Payton) and it looks like Nevin is rallying them all for a stretch run now. Purely on the merits of their hitting potentially being consistent, I feel the Padres will reach the playoffs. Not Bonds- I mean the Giants.

Colorado and Arizona will need to enter the off-season looking back at themselves. What are they doing wrong? Colorado is being out-slugged at home, which cannot be a good thing. Arizona is in trouble. Their lone pillar of support is Randy Johnson, who, despite his brilliant performances, is getting old. Their hitting was dreadful, their pitching even worse (yes, even with Randy Johnson), and neither team seems to be getting anywhere. Perhaps front office changes are looming for these teams this off-season.