Population estimates disagree

MCPS projections of Blair's population for next school year fall 100 short of the school's own predictions. According to administrators, the discrepancy may cause shortages in staffing, which is allocated based on MCPS's population figures. Principal Phillip Gainous is currently meeting with MCPS officials in hopes of increasing the MCPS projections.

The initial MCPS projection for Blair's population next year was 3,152, according to MCPS demographer Bruce Crispelle. Recently, MCPS added 100 more to its prediction, though the number still does not hit 3,377, the student count estimated by Blair officials.

Crispelle stands by MCPS projections because historical trends have shown that MCPS projections correspond fairly accurately with official student population counts. According to Crispelle, Blair's official population count this year was seven students below the MCPS forecast.

However, Resource Counselor Barbara Drumm said that at Blair, the projection means little, since Blair's population has continued to swell this year because of transfers and mid-year enrollees. As of Apr 11, Blair's population was 3,292, Drumm said.

In the past, MCPS has usually under-predicted Blair's population count, said Drumm.