Political Statistics class creates a midterm election model

The seniors in Blair's Political Statistics class created a model predicting the results of the Congressional races in the 2018 midterm elections. Seventy seniors worked on the model, named the Overall Results of an Analytical Consideration of the Looming Elections (ORACLE) of Blair, beginning in September. The model predicts the winners in the House of Representatives race for each Congressional district in the United States. It also features blog posts that detail statistical analyses of specific outcomes and trends.

The ORACLE of Blair

Photo: Seniors predict the outcome of Congressional races with a statistical model.

Seniors predict the outcome of Congressional races with a statistical model. Photo courtesy of Blair Political Statistics.

Students in the class realized that making the model would allow them to draw connections between what they already learned and events in the real world. "Because the midterms are upon us, we thought it would be pretty cool to make a model… applying what we've learned in statistics to a real-world problem," senior Steven Qu said. Students in the class experimented with different methods and variables, such as polling and demographics, for the model in a trial-and-error process.

The ORACLE of Blair has been well-received, with Rep. Jamie Raskin, college professors, journalists, professional statisticians and Blair alumni writing about the model. Students in Political Statistics are excited to see the widespread response to their project. "It's really positive — I think this is a project that should get… attention because it's unlike anything other high schools do," Qu said. The seniors hope their model raises awareness about the midterm elections and encourages more people to take Political Statistics.

The midterm election model can be found here.