MLB 2004 Playoff Predictions: Round One

New York Yankees vs. Minnesota Twins
There is a simple difference in this series. The Yankees have no pitching. The Twins have pitching. In the end, that is going to be the difference.

The Yankees rotation is composed primarily of Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez (currently ailing with an exhausted shoulder), followed by Mike Mussina (4.59 ERA), Javier Vazquez (4.91 ERA) and Jon Lieber (4.33 ERA). That is pathetic. Kevin Brown is in their bullpen, as is former Cy Young candidate Esteban Loaiza. They'll spell the overworked trio of Pat Quatrill, Tom Gordon and Mariano Rivera.

Against the Yankees, the Twins plan to show of the nasty Johan Santana, backed by Brad Radke and Carlos Silva. Their ERAs are all better than the Yankees's ERAs. The bullpen is no pushover either. The Twins have Juan Rincon, former top setup man J.C. Romero and Joe Nathan. They don't inspire as much fear as the Yankees top three relievers, but they get the job done.

The Twins will win this series if only because of Johan Santana. Santana has a 2.61 ERA and 265 strikeouts in 228 innings. The Yankees have not been able to solve him this season. There is no reason to believe the Yankees will discover the hidden secret to beating Santana now. That leaves the solid Brad Radke and Carlos Silva to jockey for one more win. Laugh all you want, but there is little reason to doubt the feasibility. Radke went 1-0 and a no decision against the Yankees this season. That is not good news for the Yankees in this best of five.

Boston Red Sox vs. Anaheim Angels
MVP candidates in this series include Manny Ramirez, David Ortiz, and Vladimir Guerrero. Expect a lot of long balls.

The big difference in this series will, again, be the pitching. Boston will send out Curt Schilling (21 wins), Pedro Martinez and Bronson Arroyo as its top three, while the Angels sling out Bartolo Colon, Kelvim Escobar and John Lackey. Forgive me for saying so, but I'm not convinced those three can handle the Red Sox offense.

The Angels, however, do have one of the best top three relievers in the game. Scott Shields has been solid (although he does own a 3.33 ERA), Francisco "K-Rod" Rodriguez is being hailed as the probable future closer, and Troy Percival is as dominant as ever. On the other hand, the Red Sox know their bullpen is their Nomar Garciapar- I mean Achilles Heel. Keith Foulke was traded for as the marquee closer, but he has been shaky. The rest of their bullpen has been relatively horrid. The injury to star setup man Scott Williamson will haunt them in this series.

That said, these teams pack enough firepower to win the game on offense alone. Their offenses are fairly evenly matched, so the series will be decided upon the stronger rotation vs. the stronger bullpen. The Red Sox, on the merits of having Schilling and Pedro as their top two, will come out on top of this one.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Three weeks ago this would have been no-contest Cardinals. Now, though, a slew of problems have cropped up for the Cardinals at the most inopportune time. The test is on.

Three weeks ago, the Cardinals looked like the perfect team. An All-Star studded offensive lineup and a rotation that caused many teams to stare in envy. Their maligned bullpen was pulling through successfully and it seemed that the one negative aspect of the Cardinals – their pitching – was solid. However in the past three weeks, Chris Carpenter has gone down due to a bicep injury (he was leading the staff with a 3.46 ERA), Matt Morris began losing control, and now their staff looks like Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan and Woody Williams. That is nothing bad – they all have ERAs ranging from 3.7 to 4.2. But in the pitching-dominated league, whether that is enough is up for grabs. They play, after all, the Dodgers, led by Odalis Perez and Kazuhisa Ishii. If it is of any consolation, however, the Cardinals bullpen has held up while the Dodgers bullpen has crumbled with the trade of Guillermo Mota and the injury to Darren Dreifort.

The Cardinals can sure punch the ball hard, though. They have five players who hit more than 20 homers this season (Albert Pujols, Scott Rolen, Jim Edmonds, Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker). They have four players who hit above .300 and a whole slew of others who hit very close. If their pitching staff falters, the Cardinals offense does have the ability to pick up the slack. The Dodgers are led by Adrian Beltre and Steve Finley, but the Dodgers offense is laughable in the face of the Cardinals.

And that offense is precisely why they will advance. The Cardinals pitching staff is solid enough to hold opponents under five runs while their offense packs enough power to launch five solo shots in one game.

Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
The Astros were supposed to get here. The Braves were not. Against all odds, the Braves did manage to win their 13th straight division title and the Astros, despite a horrible mid-season record, scrambled back into the playoffs.

Could it all have been for naught, though? The Braves have a good relatively healthy rotation, lead by Jaret Wright (3.28 ERA) and followed by John Thompson (day-to-day 3.72 ERA), Paul Byrd (3.94), Russ Ortiz (4.13) and Mike Hampton (4.28). Not bad for a rotation that was supposed to be only a shell of what was left behind after the departures of Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine. Their bullpen has a dominating ERA average of around 3 and their offense is clicking. The Astros, on the other hand, have a beat-up staff that has lost Andy Pettitte and Wade Miller to season-ending injuries. Their bullpen has a good setup and closer, and their offense is one of the most explosive in the game.

Roger Clemens and Roy Oswalt are the only givens on this staff which has been bouncing Tim Redding from rotation to bullpen repeatedly while using the services of random pitchers like Bradon Backe. Only three pitchers have tossed more than 100 innings for the Astros this season, and they are Rocket, Oswalt and Redding. Hardly a solid rotation. In a best of five, however, two pitchers could very well be enough. The Astros have an arguably better offense than the Braves (Who would not want Lance Berkman, Carlos Beltran, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell and Jeff Kent on the same team?)

In an upset, the Astros are going to surpass the Braves in this series. Clemens and 20-game winner Oswalt will drag out three wins. How far beyond that the Astros can go is beyond anybody's guess, though.