Baseball after the break

AL East – Where did Boston go? And what happened to the Orioles?

Current
New York (Yankees)
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

Projected
New York (Yankees)
Boston
Tampa Bay
Toronto
Baltimore

Only a little while ago we were all optimistic about the Red Sox whooping the Yankees for the first time in forever. Darn the Empire! Darn Steinbrenner and darn A-Rod and darn the darn Yankees! And you know they're going to make some deals to shore up their pitching staff before the trade deadline.

The Yankees are hitting the ball well, for the most part. Questionable All-Star Jason Giambi aside, the Yankees are all hitting .270 or higher. That doesn't seem spectacular until you remember that the Yankees were hitting a collective .240 earlier in the season. Especially notable is the return of Derek Jeter, hitting .370 in the past month and raising his average higher than A-Rod!

However, The Yankees pitching staff is definitely undermanned. I said it before and I say it again, Kevin Brown was no answer, and right now is not the answer either. He gets injured almost as much as the Orioles' David Segui! The Yankees will probably make an attempt to secure a pitcher such as the Pirates' Kris Benson by the trading deadline. If not, their secure 7 game lead in the AL East may, in fact, not be as secure as it looks.

Boston is a team that has finally come together in the last weeks before All-Star Break, and they hope to ride that momentum into the second half. With a secure rotation (Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling automatically make a rotation secure) and a brilliant bullpen (led by former All-Star closer Keith Foulke), Boston is a team that has underperformed. The Red Sox Nation will not let them continue underperforming, and the time to turn things around is now.

The Devil Rays success has been a surprise this season, although manager Lou Piniella refuses to admit so. The team is loaded with speed, led by All-Star Carl Crawford's 38 steals. Although the rotation is still very questionable, their hitting can pour out the runs as Aubrey Huff begins to break out of his season-long slump. The team is so loaded with young talent that, in the next few years, they may begin to seriously contend with Boston and New York for the crown. But then again, we've been saying that about most teams…

Toronto is getting Carlos Delgado back, which will be a big boost to their offense. But their pitching staff has been a disaster, exemplified by 2003 Cy Young winner Roy Halladay's struggles and the failures of Miguel Batista to settle into the rotation. Their bullpen was never their strong point in recent years, and their offense-heavy team has proven quite punch-less so far. Agonizing as it may be, this may be another rebuilding year for the Jays.

What can one say about Baltimore? I must admit I jumped the bandwagon on the Orioles way back when, and it seems to be smacking me in the head. One week they're knocking the ball out of the park like it's made of weighted plastic, the next three they're smacking the ball like it's made of 500 tons of steel. For a team that had such high offensive aspirations, their lineup is not quite pulling through. That's especially bad for a team with a horrible starting rotation (only two remain from Opening Day). The finding of gems Daniel Cabrera, Dave Borkowski and Erik Bedard are still overshadowed by the disturbing struggles of Sidney Ponson, whose ERA is as large as his body (overused, I know, I know) and the shaky return of Rodrigo Lopez to the rotation. Their bullpen, because of from exhaustion or the big gaping hole left by the escape of Lopez, is struggling, as well. This season seems to be over for the Orioles, with the only bright point being Miguel Tejada winning the Home Run Derby.

AL Central – Closer than expected

Current
Chicago (White Sox)
Minnesota
Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City

Projected
Minnesota
Chicago (White Sox)
Cleveland
Detroit
Kansas City

The AL Central has become a race of two teams, but Cleveland and Detroit are making stunning strides over last year that may place them back into contention within the next two seasons.

Chicago, bolstered by the return of Magglio Ordonez, is beating Minnesota by a whole grand… 0.5 games. How's that for lead security? Their closer situation seems to be solved by Shingo "Mr. Zero" Takatsu, and their hitting is proving as streaky as it was expected to be. Frank Thomas going on the DL is a slight blow to the team's hitting. That being said, Chicago does have a much easier schedule the rest of the way. Then why do I have them projected second? Because the Twins simply have too much of an arsenal.

After being forced to cut their already low payroll to even lower extremities, the Twins, riding the hot hand of young ace Johan Santana, are clipping right behind the White Sox. The highly anticipated (again) return of rookie John Mauer does nothing but bolster their chances of winning the crown. The rotation of Santana, Brad Radke, Kyle Lohse, and Carlos Silva (the fifth starter is still a revolving door) will win them plenty of games, and Juan Ricon and Joe Nathan will continue to give them a good chance at winning close games from the bullpen.

Cleveland has done a great job at making progress to return to semi-contention this season. Veteran Matt Lawton is finally on the verge of a breakout year and youngsters such as Jody Gerut and Travis Hafner are swinging hot bats. Their bullpen is too much of an Achilles Heel to expect them to contend this year, but with some established relievers (most notably a consistent closer), the Tribe may be a force to reckon with in the near future.

What team is as much of a surprise as the Tigers? The signing of Ivan Rodriguez was expected to have an impact, but this much? I-Rod is hitting a hefty .37 and his ability to connect with young pitchers has Detroit a mere 5.5 games behind the leading White Sox. This is from a team that was about to break the All-Time Loss record last season! The Tigers' advance gives their heart-broken fans something to cheer about. Who knows, maybe they'll score a couple crucial wins before the deadline and actually move into playoff contention?

And as much of a surprise the Tigers may be, what team is as much of a disappointment as the Royals? Mike MacDougal was an All-Star Closer last year, but now he's in the minors. Jeremy Affeldt showed promise as a closer, but he's on the DL. And All-Star Carlos Beltran was amazing, but now he's in Houston. This team has broken apart and torn the hearts of the Kansas City fans. It may be time to cheer for the Chiefs already.

AL West – And in the lead are the… the Rangers!?

Current
Texas
Oakland
Anaheim
Seattle

Projected
Oakland
Anaheim
Texas
Seattle

The standings still look almost opposite from last season. That's saying a lot.

How can the Rangers have gotten better after dumping A-Rod to New York? Impossible. And yet they have moved from the cellar to the top. That cannot continue, and Kenny Rogers cannot be a 20-game winner. Despite the beautiful rise by the Rangers, they will overtaken, in the end, by Oakland's pitching and Anaheim's big bats. Kenny Rogers does not strike the same fear as Mark Mulder, and the hitting duo of Alfonso Soriano and Mike Young is nothing like Vladimir Guerrero and Garrett Anderson.

Oakland is definitely becoming desperate, and their moves will not end yet. Word is, the A's are willing to deal Barry Zito for a good reliever and a second baseman, therefore promoting second year starter Rich Harden into the Big Three (and with good cause). If the A's want to win the division, they're going to have to hope Mark Redman settles down, Rich Harden becomes more consistent, Barry Zito becomes something like his 2002 Cy Young self, Tim Hudson gets off the DL, Octavio Dotel gets better, etc. etc. Odds are, Billy Beane is going to do something to right the A's, but their bullpen struggles are still daunting.

Anaheim has taken a slight fall since its initial power surge. Look for that to end soon. The sluggers are tearing it up again, led by potential MVP Vlad Guerrero, and pitchers like Bartolo Colon and Kelvim Escobar look to be settling into place. Anaheim simply has too much power and talent to stay at third place in the division, and they will leapfrog Texas and possibly even Oakland.

However, Seattle has taken a mighty fall from last year. The Mariners are officially in rebuilding mode as they have traded Freddy Garcia to the White Sox for prospects and are still shopping more players. The revolving door between the team and its minor league affiliates is going to need some fresh greasing soon with all the moves that will probably take place. Their season is pretty much over.

NL East – A reviving dynasty

Current
Philadelphia
Atlanta
Florida
New York (Mets)
Montreal

Projected
Atlanta
Florida
Philadelphia
New York (Mets)
Montreal

Who expected to see this- Atlanta climbing back up the rankings after being behind so much?

Philadelphia is, again, swinging for the fences and scoring by homers. Their pitching staff is showing the right stuff expected and the bullpen is holding its own. But the lack of a lead-off hitter and their ridiculous dependence on hitting home runs will do them in. Sluggers tend to be very streaky, unless you're Barry Bonds. That means that, at some point, their hitters likely will stop, just like they did LAST year. One would not be surpred to see the Phillies hang on to win the crown, Atlanta is just riding too much momentum and is led by too good of a staff to not continue a serious drive and Josh Beckett's return to the Marlin's rotation will swing things back into the Marlin's favor. It's a close race.

Atlanta is making a comeback this season on a wave of confidence. J.D. Drew is finally showing the potential he has teased everyone with (assuming he does not get injured), Johnny Estrada is replacing Javy Lopez quite well (.332-4-47), and Marcus Giles looks to return. The Joneses are underachieving, as is John Smoltz, which gives plenty of optimism to the Braves for winning the division again.

Meanwhile the Marlins just cannot stop Beckett's blisters. The return of A.J. Burnett has almost been overshadowed by Beckett's repeated returns to the DL. Second-year Miguel Cabrera has matched and gone beyond the expectations placed on him this season. The lead-off tandem of Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo are going to have to pick up the pace, however, as Pierre is having an outrageously bad Stolen Bases – Caught Stealing ratio (21-14) and Luis Castillo is still swinging an ice cold bat. As the two speedsters go, the Marlins go. Castillo has been a second-half ace, so look for him to start heating up. But Pierre slowed down last year after the break, so things may be looking somewhat grim for the Fish.

The Mets actually have a winning record after the break this year! Trading for streaky slugger Richard Hidalgo from the Astros has had a bigger impact than the Mets expected, giving their outfield a quick infusion of energy and a blast of momentum heading into the break. No one knows how long Mike Cameron and Cliff Floyd can keep hitting long-balls, though, and in the case of Floyd, stay healthy. 41-year-old Tom Glavine is not guaranteed to keep up his pace, and closer Braden Looper was allowed to leave by the Marlins for a reason. The Mets will try to make a run for Randy Johnson, but their long-shot at making the playoffs will doom their bid for the Big Unit and their season.

And what can be said of Montreal, except that they still have no home even though the All-Star break has passed? How much longer will the league continue to stifle the Expos and their attempts at garnering any respect whatsoever? How many more Javier Vazquez and Vladimir Guerrero's must they see? Not much else to say here.

NL Central – Where the color red seems to prevail

Current
St. Louis
Chicago
Cincinnati
Milwaukee
Houston
Pittsburgh

Projected
St. Louis
Houston
Chicago
Milwaukee
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh

Um, ok, the Cardinals have great hitting. But who expected them to be leading by seven wins at the break!?

St. Louis, riding the obviously splendid bats of Scott Rolen, Albert Pujols, Reggie Sanders and Jim Edmons, and led by catalysts Tony Womack and Edgar Renterria, are one of the leaders in offensive categories. Expected and done. But who thought their pitching was going to hold up this well? Chris Carpenter has done an amazing job returning from Tommy John surgery, Woody Williams is slowly turning things around, Matt Morris can only become better, Jeff Suppan is downright amazing and closer Jason Isringhausen is healthy from the get-go. Their seven-game lead over the division is unexpected, but perhaps we were just too excited about the Cubs and the Astros, who, by the way, are underachieving beyond explanation.

Jimy Williams' firing was seen miles away. The manager change is expected to infuse energy into this team with high expectations, especially after trading for All-Star Carlos Beltran. The team has too much talent on all sides of the ball to be in fifth place, and the acquiring of Beltran gives them an edge over the Cubs. Their lackluster play thus far is inexcusable, and can only continue so long. Look for them to make a bang in returning back to where they belong- near the top of the division.

The Cubs have been bitten by the injury bug. But good news- Kerry Wood is ready to start games again. This could not have been at a better time, as the Cubs trail the Cardinals by seven games. If there's anything that could help them make a comeback, it would be the return of Kerry Wood. However the Cubs' bats are not much of a match for the Astros nor the Cardinals. Word is, the Cubs are going to try to add a bat by the trading deadline. For now, the Cubs don't look like they'll be able to regain the top spot in the division.

Reality has caught up to the Reds. Ken Griffey, Jr. is out for up to eight weeks after he tore his hamstring again. With Austin Kearns and Sean Casey injured, this leaves the Reds with just Adam Dunn. Dunn has been fantastic this year, showing more patience at the plate and still delivering the huge hits (.263-25-53 with 69 walks), but with the Reds' suspect pitching, he may not be enough offense, especially facing the Cardinals, Cubs, Astros and the Brewers.

Speaking of the Brewers, they're ahead of the Astros in the division by 2 games. Ben Sheets has delivered with a long-expected breakout, showcased especially by his 18-strikeout game earlier this season. The offense is still struggling, with lead-off hitter Scott Podsednik on a slump and Geoff Jenkins yet to show his big-hit potential, but the Brewers are hanging in there, giving hope to the Brew Crew.

And Pittsburgh, despite all the low expectations placed upon them this season, are still alive, despite an impossible amount of games they must make up (14.5 behind the Cards). Their young pitching staff (Strike-out artist Oliver Perez and the emerging Sean Burnett) has displayed promise and hitters such as rookie Jason Bay and Rob Mackowiack have shown glimpses of what's to come in the future. Their season is essentially over, with potential suitors lining up to deal for pitcher Kris Benson, but their trades last season seem to be paying off already.

NL West – The Battle of California?

Current
Los Angeles
San Francisco
San Diego
Colorado
Arizona

Projected
Los Angeles
San Francisco
San Diego
Colorado
Arizona

Three teams are above .500 in this division, and they're all from California. Is there some sort of conspiracy afoot?

The Dodgers have done well so far, given an injury to Adrian Beltre and the much- publicized struggles of pitcher Hideo Nomo. Their bullpen has done its job, as expected, with Guillermo Mota and almost-invincible Eric Gagne leading the way. Forget Gagne blowing a save for the first time in… well, forever. The Dodgers are, unmistakably, hitting the ball. How long has it been since you could say that? Their key for the second half and the playoffs will be the health of Beltre, who is battling a strained back and a bone spur in his leg. Hideo Nomo's return to form after an obviously not-quite-so-successful rehabilitation from shoulder surgery in the off-season will also determine whether the Dodgers can hang onto the division and how far they can go in the playoffs.

Speaking of rising bats, how about the Giants' semblance of a hitting squad now? Barry Bonds is still on pace to and probably will break his own record of walks in a season, and much of that can be attributed to the lack of hitters on either side of him in the lineup. Now, with Edgardo Alfonzo, Nunez Perez, A.J. Pierzynski, and Pedro Feliz finally waking up, somewhat, Bonds may actually be pitched to! Well, forget that, they're still not hitting well enough. The combination of Bonds and ace pitcher Jason Schmidt pose a great threat to the division and the rest of the league, but whether they can continue to challenge for the division will rest upon, well, the rest of the team.

The Padres have somewhat cooled off since their blazing hot start. This is not to say they've completely fallen, as they're still only two games behind in the division. Their young pitchers are getting more experienced, but they're also becoming more fatigued. That's especially true in the case of their prized reliever Akinori Otsuka. Phil Nevin's injury is also a killer, as he was carrying their offense for a solid month. The Padres will not be able to count on his return any time soon, so the offense rests upon Brian Giles (who has done it before with the Pirates) and Ryan Klesko, provided he can return to 2002 form.

Colorado has been, as expected, so-so. Their pitching staff is struggling with the hitter's park, their closer Chacon is finally settling down, and opposing hitters are actually hitting better at the park than the Rockies. Now that's just sad. Jeremy Burnitz is slugging, but where is the rest of the team?

If any team could struggle even with Randy Johnson on board, the Diamondbacks have. They have the league's worst record (yes, worse than the Expos) and yet they have arguably the best pitcher. Johnson has caused quite a stir by saying that he could possibly change teams by the end of the season, but I don't buy it. There are few teams that can give up enough good prospects for Johnson and those that do have a good enough farm system are not quite willing to drain it, no matter how good the Big Unit is. The D-Backs will likely deal some of their hitters, but look for Johnson to stay and for the D-Backs to have a rather disappointing end of the season.